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Democrats show early lead in 2006

Submitted by Benny G on March 15, 2006 - 3:08pm.

Take these generic polls with a huge grain of salt, but it certainly runs counter to the "incompetent dems cant find ass from hole in ground" storyline.

March 15, 2006
Democratic Congressional Lead Among Registered Voters Largest Since '82 Midterm--Lead by 55% to 39% on generic ballot

The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds the Democratic Party leading the Republican Party 55% to 39% among registered voters in the generic congressional ballot. Gallup asks this question to get a sense of how people will vote in this year's elections for the U.S. House of Representatives.

This is the largest lead Democrats have held over Republicans in the 2006 campaign thus far, and the largest lead Democrats have enjoyed among registered voters in a midterm election since 1982. In the 1992 presidential campaign, Democrats led Republicans by 20 percentage points following the Democratic national convention that year. Once likely voter turnout models are applied -- something usually done later in the campaign -- the Democrats' advantage on the generic ballot is reduced given higher turnout rates among Republicans than Democrats. Still, a lead of this size would suggest a solid Democratic advantage among likely voters and the likelihood of Democratic seat gains.

Cool, now we just need to make it happen.

Submitted by chrisz on March 16, 2006 - 11:27am.

The problem with polls of generic candidates is that people vote for real politicians with existing images and records. It is much to easy for those answering a poll to put all their hopes onto a faceless generic candidate or register their anger against Bush or "Congress" who not running in a local race.

People have a much harder time blaming their own Congressperson (say Congressman Reichert) for problems in D.C. The trick for the Dems is to tie him to the issues that emotionally offend voters. Not easy. But the good news about the poll is that voters are upset about Republican actions in D.C. so there are more hot button issues to tie to Reichert.

Submitted by Dwight McCabe (not verified) on March 23, 2006 - 4:58pm.

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