Deep Inside The Numbers, Hillary's "Win" Looks Shallow

Obama Puts More of the Map in Play, Hillary At Her Ceiling

The blogs were abuzz last week (pre OH / TX showdown) regarding SurveyUSA's Electoral Map. Obama wins the general election 280 against McCain's 258 while Clinton wins 276 to 262.

Of course polls this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, even if SurveyUSA has been almost as good as Obama's leaked Bloomberg spreadsheet. It's definitely great news that both candidates win against McCain, but deep within these numbers you can see that Clinton's Electoral win is on much more shallow ground than Obama's Electoral map, which is on the smaller range of his possible win margin. Clinton is likely at her ceiling with 276 - she has no where to go but down. Dems should take notice.

They both win Ohio by +10%, Obama loses Florida by -2% (Hillary by wins by +9%), Hillary wins PA by 1% and Obama loses by -5% and they're basically both tied in Michigan (Obama up by +1%). In the end, Obama puts a lot more of the map in play, and that is always a better position to begin from. Make no mistake - Obama will be playing offense and is within striking distance of PA and FL, along with tons of other states (while still winning 280). Hillary will be playing Gore 2000 / Kerry 2004 defense.

Obama Wins that Hillary Trails:
Colorado (Obama +6% / Hillary -2%)
Iowa (Obama +9% / Hillary -5%)
Nevada (Obama +2% / Hillary -8%)
New Hampshire (Obama +2% / Hillary -8%)
New Mexico (Obama +7% / Hillary tied)
North Dakota (Obama +4% / Hillary -19%)
Oregon (Obama +8 % / Hillary -5%)
Washington (Obama +14% / Hillary -2%)
Wisconsin (Obama +11% / Hillary +2% - not a loss, but way closer)
Virginia (Obama Tie / Hillary -10%)


Republican States That Obama Can Compete More Easily For:
Nebraska (Obama -3% / Hillary -23%)
North Carolina (Obama -2% / Hillary -8%)
South Carolina (Obama -3% / Hillary -6%)
South Dakota (Obama -4% / Hillary -12%)
Texas (Obama -1% / Hillary -7%)

The only states that Hillary puts into play that look outside of Obama's map are Arkansas (Hillary +11% / Obama -20%) and West Virginia (Hillary +5% / Obama -18%). Obama hasn't had a chance to campaign in WV yet, but down 20% seems something that is beyond a simple primary campaign.

So, Dems... what do you want to do? Offense or defense?

Oh, and what's up with Washington?!?! A 14 point win by Obama and a 2 point loss by Hillary?

Related Links :
SurveyUSA - Obama vs McCain (3/6/08)
SurveyUSA - Clinton vs. McCain.