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The Electoral Map 2008

Sun, 09 Mar 2008 19:49:31 -0700

Deep Inside The Numbers, Hillary's "Win" Looks Shallow

Obama Puts More of the Map in Play, Hillary At Her Ceiling

The blogs were abuzz last week (pre OH / TX showdown) regarding SurveyUSA's Electoral Map. Obama wins the general election 280 against McCain's 258 while Clinton wins 276 to 262.

Of course polls this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, even if SurveyUSA has been almost as good as Obama's leaked Bloomberg spreadsheet. It's definitely great news that both candidates win against McCain, but deep within these numbers you can see that Clinton's Electoral win is on much more shallow ground than Obama's Electoral map, which is on the smaller range of his possible win margin. Clinton is likely at her ceiling with 276 - she has no where to go but down. Dems should take notice.

They both win Ohio by +10%, Obama loses Florida by -2% (Hillary by wins by +9%), Hillary wins PA by 1% and Obama loses by -5% and they're basically both tied in Michigan (Obama up by +1%). In the end, Obama puts a lot more of the map in play, and that is always a better position to begin from. Make no mistake - Obama will be playing offense and is within striking distance of PA and FL, along with tons of other states (while still winning 280). Hillary will be playing Gore 2000 / Kerry 2004 defense.

Obama Wins that Hillary Trails:
Colorado (Obama +6% / Hillary -2%)
Iowa (Obama +9% / Hillary -5%)
Nevada (Obama +2% / Hillary -8%)
New Hampshire (Obama +2% / Hillary -8%)
New Mexico (Obama +7% / Hillary tied)
North Dakota (Obama +4% / Hillary -19%)
Oregon (Obama +8 % / Hillary -5%)
Washington (Obama +14% / Hillary -2%)
Wisconsin (Obama +11% / Hillary +2% - not a loss, but way closer)
Virginia (Obama Tie / Hillary -10%)

Republican States That Obama Can Compete More Easily For:
Nebraska (Obama -3% / Hillary -23%)
North Carolina (Obama -2% / Hillary -8%)
South Carolina (Obama -3% / Hillary -6%)
South Dakota (Obama -4% / Hillary -12%)
Texas (Obama -1% / Hillary -7%)

The only states that Hillary puts into play that look outside of Obama's map are Arkansas (Hillary +11% / Obama -20%) and West Virginia (Hillary +5% / Obama -18%). Obama hasn't had a chance to campaign in WV yet, but down 20% seems something that is beyond a simple primary campaign.

So, Dems... what do you want to do? Offense or defense?

Oh, and what's up with Washington?!?! A 14 point win by Obama and a 2 point loss by Hillary?

Bill Bradley On The Baggage of Hillary and Bill

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 19:46:13 -0800

Vetted? Tested? The known-known? The Clinton Library (and more importantly The Clinton Foundation) are more fun than saying Marc Rich or Lincoln Bedroom three times fast!

Thomas Jefferson Would Vote For Barack Obama

Wed, 05 Mar 2008 16:14:00 -0800

Thomas Jefferson, the founder of the Democratic Party, the principle author of the Declaration of Independence, and the third president of the United States would be, if alive, a Superdelegate. Sure, he'd be 265 years old, but that's beside the point.

And, the founder of the party of FDR and JFK, the party of Hillary and Bill Clinton and the party of John Edwards and Bill Richardson would vote for Barack Obama if things stay the way they are today. How do we know this? It's simple... it's one of his most famous quotes:

"The majority of a single vote (is) as sacred as if unanimous" - Thomas Jefferson

If Barack Obama is ahead in the popular vote, as he is today, if he is ahead in the pledged delegate count, as he is today, Hillary Clinton must decide if she wishes to go against the majority of voters in the country, the majority of delegates (by which the nomination is officially decided) and Thomas Jefferson in her quest for the nomination.

Good luck with that one Hillary. Good luck.

Updated Washington State Superdelegate Count

Tue, 12 Feb 2008 06:48:31 -0800

Sen Obama cleaned up in Washington State by a margin of greater than 2 to 1 on Saturday (The Republicans, meanwhile, well... who knows. Check out SoundPolitics if you want to get some lols at the Republicans expense). The Seattle Times reports today that 8 of the 17 Superdelegates on the Democratic side are still undecided.

It sounds like the undecided superdelegates are unlikely to make up their minds anytime soon, and (if you're a constituent of theirs) I still think sending emails to them regarding the positive reasons you are supporting Sen Obama is an effective way to advocate for his candidacy. (Note: If you are not their direct constituent, don't bother. It's more of a nuisance and is probably a net negative).

DNC Members are fre game, though. The Seattle Times reports that DNC Members like Eileen Macoll are getting phone calls from the big wigs, including President Clinton. "I'm getting a lot of attention and I'll tell you, for a little country mouse like me, it's a big deal," Macoll said.

Well, it seems to me that the "mouses" in this state have spoken, and perhaps we need to let Ms. Macoll know directly.

Now, on to the updated Superdelegate count:

Elected Officials:
Rep. Rick Larsen (2nd District)
Rep. Jim McDermott (7th District)

Democratic National Committee Members:
Dwight Pelz - WA Democratic Party Chair
Eileen Macoll - WA Vice Chair
Ed Cote (coed@pacifier.com)
Sharon Mast (skmast@att.net)
David McDonald (davidm@prestongates.com)

Already Endorsed Obama:
Rep. Adam Smith (WA)
Pat Noter (WA DNC Member)
Rep. Brian Baird (3rd District)
Gov. Christine Gregoire

Already Endorsed Clinton:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA)
Rep. Jay Inslee (WA)
Former Speaker Tom Foley (WA)
Sen. Patty Murray (WA)
Ron Sims (WA)

Register To Vote At Your Caucus Site!

Thu, 07 Feb 2008 08:03:04 -0800

The Stranger did a great article on how to caucus this upcoming Saturday, February 9th. You can read it here.

The most important thing they remind everyone of is that, if you are not registered to vote or have forgotten if you are or not, you can register to vote at your caucus site! If you want to do that, arrive early! Also, because the folks that run the caucus might forget to bring them, bring your own registration form already filled out! You can download a registration form here.

Also, if you have moved and your registration is not up to date, download the same form and bring it with you with your previous address filled out.

The Stranger explains the basics for you:

THE BASICS
The caucuses for both parties kick off at 1:00 p.m. on Saturday, February 9. Arrive early, or, at the very least, precisely on time. Democracy doesn't care about your excuses for tardiness.

To be eligible to attend a caucus, you must be registered to vote. Not currently registered? You can register to vote at your caucus site—but if you're planning to do that, arrive early. If you're not 18 yet, but are going to be 18 by the time of the election in November, you can participate...

At the caucus, you will be made to sign a pledge related to your party affiliation. Don't worry. You can still vote for whomever you want in November...

Still confused? Call the Democratic caucus hotline, (206) 583-4345, or the Republican state party, (206) 575-2900.

I kept meaning to do a post about registering to vote at your caucus site once I found out about it last week, but 2 weeks of phone banking every night and canvasing kept me a bit busy.

Spread the word!

Washington State Democrats - How to Located Your Caucus Site

Thu, 31 Jan 2008 11:13:21 -0800

Obama is surging in the national polls and it looks increasingly likely that Super Tuesday will not end the race either way.

The eyes of the nation will soon turn to Washington State's February 9th Caucus so it's time to get fired up and ready to go. If you are unsure of your registration status, you can still register in person until February 4th.

The Washington State Democratic Party website has a caucus locater, but it's pretty weak, especially for young people who have never voted before and for young people who move often. Use this one instead:

http://wa-demchairs.org/2008/caucuslocations.php

Make sure to use the address where you were last registered if you have moved recently as your address of registration dictates your caucus site.

UPDATE: A commenter claims that the site above was taken offline weeks ago (seems to be working fine) but in case you're having problems, please call the hotline (206) 583-4345 or go to www.wa-democrats.org.

Reach Out To Washington State Superdelegates!

Thu, 31 Jan 2008 09:28:53 -0800

I blogged about it a couple days ago. Now the Seattle Times is writing about it. Superdelegates could be the deciding factor in the Democratic Party Presidential Primary. Beyond that, local Superdelegate endorsements matter.

The Seattle Times reports today that Gov Gregoire will make an endorsement before the Washington State Democratic Party Caucus on February 9th.

Seattle Times : Elite Dems are the life of the party
Gov. Christine Gregoire has been under a lot of pressure lately to pick a candidate. As a superdelegate, she met with Clinton supporter Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, daughter of the late Robert F. Kennedy, and missed several calls from former President Clinton and from Obama.

"And that's just in the past couple of days," Gregoire said Tuesday.

The governor said she is deeply torn between Obama's "message of hope" and Clinton's experience. But she said she plans to make a decision soon and announce her preference before the party's Feb. 9 precinct caucuses.

Gov. Gregoire's endorsement matters. But so does your encouragement, as the people who elected her by a less than 200 vote margin, for her to support Sen. Barack Obama.

Click this link to Email Gov. Gregoire today! Your emails will show her that Washington State supports a new generation of leadership and will reward her with enthusiastic support for her own re-election bid in November.

You can read the email I sent to her (and then cut, paste, edit and sent to the others on the Superdelegate list I provided a few days ago), after the break. Feel free to copy and adapt it for your own use.

It'll take 5 minutes of your day and it will make a difference.

Unpledged Washington State Democratic Party Superdelegates.. Oh My!

Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:16:14 -0800

Make Your Voice Heard Loud & Clear... Tell The Key Holders That A New Generation Is Ready To Lead!

Updated 2/12/08: Go to this new post for updated delegate counts and new information!

Okay, I'm for Obama, but you already knew that. Here's the deal. Like I said in the previous post, the race for the nomination is likely to be a long one. It is extremely likely that is will drag on past Super Tuesday (Feb 5th) and into Washington State on February 9th.

It's also becoming increasingly possible that, after all 50 states (and American Samoa!) have voted, we still won't have a nominee. What then? Superdelegates.

Check out this Wikipedia article to find out what exactly Superdelegates are but, the short of it is, they're left over from the days when the nominees were chosen in smoke filled back rooms during the party conventions by a bunch of haggling old men. Ain't that democratic! Well, the SDs are the last visages of that (thankfully) by-gone era. They're loyal party members, party heads and elected officials and they hold one fifth (19.6%) of all votes at the convention.

Currently, Clinton has around 200 pledged SDs, Obama has around 100, Edwards around 40 and somewhere between 400-500 SDs are not committed yet. That's where you come in. Write a quick email to these people (cut + paste always works!) and let them know who you support and why.

Here's the list of Washington State Superdelegates for the Democratic Party who have not endorsed anyone at this point. Most are doing web submitted emails these days, so click their name and you'll be taken straight to their site to submit an email. Be brief, extremely nice, and let them know why you want them to support Barack Obama.

The battle for Superdelegates has already begun by each side, but what matters most is what elected officials hear from their constituents.

Washington State, You Matter... You Matter A Lot

Sun, 27 Jan 2008 14:28:08 -0800

With Obama spanking Billary and the politics of racial division in concert with the endorsement of Sen. Kennedy and a stirring endorsement and essay in the New York Times by Caroline Kennedy making headlines today, it looks as if Obama has some wind against his back pushing him towards February 5th and Super Tuesday.

But the establishment is just as likely to push back and the formerly decisive wave of delegates awarded on Super Tuesday, according to the AP amongst others, is now (gaffs and major news-cycle changes aside) unlikely to provide a knock-out punch to either campaign.

That means Washington State's February 9th Caucus will likely turn out to be crucial to either campaign. (If you haven't registered to vote, or if your registration needs updating, you can do it in person until February 4th. Click here, select your county, and you can see where to register!)

You can find your caucus site using the Washington State Democrats Caucus Finder, which is someone useful, but not entirely correct. I'll keep looking for a better site.

Get out there and make your voice heard. It's generational change we're talking about and, for once, Washington State can have a serious impact on the primary race.

Although everyone reading this likely knows already, the Democratic Party will not be using the results of the election which will take place to award any delgates, so don't think that by voting you're making a difference. You are making your voice heard for the future of Superdelegates (more about that in a bit) but you really need to Caucus to make your voice heard in any meaningful fashion!)

The Stranger & The Sierra Club Were Wrong...

Mon, 21 Jan 2008 11:08:07 -0800

So now what do we do about it?

The Stranger and The Sierra Club promised that if you voted against Roads and Rails / Proposition 1, you would only be voting against expanding roads. They promised that the political class could look beyond the failure of R&R and see that a new coalition existed - a coalition which wanted to see a light rail only solution. They promised that a vote against Prop 1 was only the first step in a great expansion of light rail for the region. They promised the best of both worlds.

So, Proposition 1 / Roads & Rails failed. And then there was silence. The Stranger & The Sierra Club got all the greens, all the transit supporters and all the progressives in the city up in a frenzy, they voted against Prop 1, and then everyone went to sleep, quietly awaiting what the good liberal folks of The Stranger & The Sierra Club promised. Light rail was coming, it was only a matter of time.

Well, what lesson did the political class actually learn? No more light rail.. more buses! That's what...

Crosscut Seattle : Beyond Prop 1: A new consensus is emerging

A group headed by Norm Rice and John Stanton is gathering allies for a more rational and practical approach to the region's transit needs... a new consensus is emerging about a post-Prop 1 agenda.

It centers on moving aside turf-oriented, self-serving agencies such as Sound Transit and transferring power to a more objective, more responsive regional body... It would not stop light rail construction in place, but it would limit construction to a line running from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport to either Convention Place, Husky Stadium, or Northgate.

Future funding would be focused more greatly on express bus, bus rapid transit, and normal bus service; dedicated transit lanes; HOV lanes; tolling; and selective repair and expansion of long neglected local roads and lifeline highways. Citywide trolleys definitely would not be part of the scheme.

No roads! No rails! Buses for all!

You can read about whether or not Ted Van Dyk (anti-rail author of the Crosscut article) is tilting the facts in articles at both The Slog and Northwest Progressive as well as arguements that what Stanton & Rice want to do is already blocked by some in the Legislature. But what isn't addressed is the fact that CW is now tilted against light rail, and The Sierra Club and (less importantly) The Stranger don't seem to feel they had anything to do with it.

The block of interest groups which killed 50 miles of light rail promised that they could get it back, and now the elder key-holders of Washington State seem poised to bring you buses instead.

I hate you, Sierra Club & The Stranger.

And, we're back!

Mon, 21 Jan 2008 08:41:50 -0800

Well, it's been a crazy month. Flying back-and-forth to Seattle for holidays, running up to New Hampshire to volunteer for the Obama campaign for a while, and hitting the ground here in NYC to hopefully make Hillary spend some of her cash defending her home turf. Oh, and there might be a trip to South Carolina tomorrow as, apparently, the Obama people now know I'm somebody who is willing to travel.

I've taken some great pictures and met some great people, and sometime I'll blog about it.

All I can say is, if you feel strongly about it, we need your support. So, go to barackobama.com and do what you can.

Grad school and student loans means only $50 from my family in all of 2007, so I volunteered my time instead. It's not glamorous, but it's needed and at least I can always say I did my part. I got to see Sen. Obama speak after the NH primary and I already know it is one of the highlights of my life and will be forever.

I'm in the bloggin' mode now (and luckily this break wasn't as long as the previous) so let's get rollin'!

Tangled Up In Blue

Fri, 14 Dec 2007 07:47:20 -0800

So this is what happens when a party denies global warming and evolution and is increasingly seen as the extension of a religious movement...

Seattle Times : Once-mighty GOP on the Eastside takes another hit
State Republicans, who've seen their grip on the Eastside suburbs weaken over the past decade, have now been vanquished to the hills. Thursday's defection by Republican Rep. Fred Jarrett to the Democratic Party leaves only the Eastside's most rural legislative district with any GOP state lawmakers.

Holiday season stuff, finals and life in general has kept me busy the last two weeks, but I promise some bloggin' about Washington State tax reform soon!

Shapiro Brings Teh Lols

Thu, 29 Nov 2007 09:02:40 -0800

Item! Barack Obama: Radical liberal

So, I seriously thought about Jackie Harvey-ing this article by everyone's favorite 23-year-old columnist Ben Shapiro but, really, it wouldn't be as funny.

The Onion should seriously just use his OpEd columns. They're comedic gold.

WorldNetDaily - Barack Obama: Radical liberal
Sen. Barack Obama's platform is his politics of "understanding." Obama has been careful not to define the issues upon which he runs; rather, he explains that it is time to "move forward," to discard "ideology," to reach a new "common ground" built on an "understanding" of broad-based values. Of course, this is pure Grade A pap.

The whole "article" is a crock of "shit" (excuse me, pure grade A pap). Once again, I am "amazed" that this guy "graduated" from "Harvard".

Give it a read... More lols than you can count.

Supermajority Defeated ... Next Up, Income Tax Created!

Mon, 26 Nov 2007 08:54:37 -0800

A long time ago, when BD first started out... Well, things were different. A lot has changed, but one of the first things BD did was call for the elimination of the Supermajority. We talked about it a lot.

Hopefully, it helped get other people talking. And then they told two people, and they told two people... blah blah blah. And, a little over a week ago, Washington State, a state in which education is the constitutionally mandated first priority of government, finally put school funding on the same footing as politicians, propositions, presidents (well, most of them) and stadiums (oopss... again, most of them).

I always thought that ending the supermajority was one of the biggest steps that Washington State could take in making real, structural change towards a more equatable and prosperous future.

And, I always thought that the bigger issue, and the one that should be tackled next, is the elimination of the sales tax and the implementation of a progressively indexed income tax. Once again, it means a change to the state consitution. And, once again, the fight will have to be waged over several years to convince people that this is the direction the state needs to go in.

And don't think that this can't be done... the Supermajority was never suppose to be eliminated. Horsesass.org talked about it yesterday while presenting a link from a Spokesman Review editorial. Although the description of the link is a bit misleading in my opinion (the editorial is really about how to structure a more progressive property tax system with the legislature running back into session to reinstate the 1% cap from Eyman's recently-ruled unconstitutional I-747, not about the income tax), the rumblings are starting. The Spokesman Review editorial says only this about a state-wide income tax:

Spokesman Review : Another Way (Nov 20, 2007)
Washington state's tax system... the nation's most burdensome for low-income people... An income tax would also help, but that isn't popular with voters or lawmakers.

They're right. It isn't... yet. But that's because people don't necessarily understand it. Just like they didn't understand the Supermajority. In my mind, one thing is for sure - any talk of implimenting an income tax must be in combination with the elimination of the sales tax. People of this state will never agree to a reduction of the sales tax in concert with the implementation of an income tax - nor should they. They will, rightfully, see that a reduction of the sales tax will mean that it can always go back up.

The sales tax must die and in its place, a more equitable, fair and easier income tax must replace it to keep moving Washington forward.

And, never fear - facts, wonky-ness, and ramblings about the income tax are going to be coming from me until it gets done.

I Agree With Grover Norquist - Dear Lord, Help Us All...

Thu, 15 Nov 2007 08:16:07 -0800

I agree with Grover Norquist. It pains me to say it and type it. I never thought those words would cross my mind. Yes, I agree with the ultra-right wing creator of Americans for Tax Reform.

I was watching MSNBC a few mornings ago (note: admitting you've watched MSNBC is almost more embarrassing than admitting you agree with Norquist) and Grover came on to talk about a new constitutional amendment he's pushing which I completely support. (also note: I've never seen a picture of Grover before and he looks quite different than I thought he would)

TimesOnline: Fear of a dynasty denies Hillary Clinton votes (Nov 11, 2007)
Norquist has commissioned lawyers to draw up a constitutional amendment that would ban family members from succeeding one another to elected and appointed office. If passed, it would not apply to the Clinton's as a Bush was elected in between them. But Norquist believes that it will alert voters to the perils of dynasty.

Here's the kicker, there's a quote from Peggy Noonan, former Reagan speech writer and Wall Street Journal hack, that I also agree with in that article. What is the world coming too?

Dynasticism brings with it a sense of deterioration. It is dispiriting.

Noonan! Noonan!