Deep Inside The Numbers, Hillary's "Win" Looks Shallow

Obama Puts More of the Map in Play, Hillary At Her Ceiling

The blogs were abuzz last week (pre OH / TX showdown) regarding SurveyUSA's Electoral Map. Obama wins the general election 280 against McCain's 258 while Clinton wins 276 to 262.

Of course polls this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, even if SurveyUSA has been almost as good as Obama's leaked Bloomberg spreadsheet. It's definitely great news that both candidates win against McCain, but deep within these numbers you can see that Clinton's Electoral win is on much more shallow ground than Obama's Electoral map, which is on the smaller range of his possible win margin. Clinton is likely at her ceiling with 276 - she has no where to go but down. Dems should take notice.

They both win Ohio by +10%, Obama loses Florida by -2% (Hillary by wins by +9%), Hillary wins PA by 1% and Obama loses by -5% and they're basically both tied in Michigan (Obama up by +1%). In the end, Obama puts a lot more of the map in play, and that is always a better position to begin from. Make no mistake - Obama will be playing offense and is within striking distance of PA and FL, along with tons of other states (while still winning 280). Hillary will be playing Gore 2000 / Kerry 2004 defense.

Obama Wins that Hillary Trails:
Colorado (Obama +6% / Hillary -2%)
Iowa (Obama +9% / Hillary -5%)
Nevada (Obama +2% / Hillary -8%)
New Hampshire (Obama +2% / Hillary -8%)
New Mexico (Obama +7% / Hillary tied)
North Dakota (Obama +4% / Hillary -19%)
Oregon (Obama +8 % / Hillary -5%)
Washington (Obama +14% / Hillary -2%)
Wisconsin (Obama +11% / Hillary +2% - not a loss, but way closer)
Virginia (Obama Tie / Hillary -10%)


Republican States That Obama Can Compete More Easily For:
Nebraska (Obama -3% / Hillary -23%)
North Carolina (Obama -2% / Hillary -8%)
South Carolina (Obama -3% / Hillary -6%)
South Dakota (Obama -4% / Hillary -12%)
Texas (Obama -1% / Hillary -7%)

The only states that Hillary puts into play that look outside of Obama's map are Arkansas (Hillary +11% / Obama -20%) and West Virginia (Hillary +5% / Obama -18%). Obama hasn't had a chance to campaign in WV yet, but down 20% seems something that is beyond a simple primary campaign.

So, Dems... what do you want to do? Offense or defense?

Oh, and what's up with Washington?!?! A 14 point win by Obama and a 2 point loss by Hillary?

Sen Obama cleaned up in Washington State by a margin of greater than 2 to 1 on Saturday (The Republicans, meanwhile, well... who knows. Check out SoundPolitics if you want to get some lols at the Republicans expense). The Seattle Times reports today that 8 of the 17 Superdelegates on the Democratic side are still undecided.

It sounds like the undecided superdelegates are unlikely to make up their minds anytime soon, and (if you're a constituent of theirs) I still think sending emails to them regarding the positive reasons you are supporting Sen Obama is an effective way to advocate for his candidacy. (Note: If you are not their direct constituent, don't bother. It's more of a nuisance and is probably a net negative).

DNC Members are fre game, though. The Seattle Times reports that DNC Members like Eileen Macoll are getting phone calls from the big wigs, including President Clinton. "I'm getting a lot of attention and I'll tell you, for a little country mouse like me, it's a big deal," Macoll said.

Well, it seems to me that the "mouses" in this state have spoken, and perhaps we need to let Ms. Macoll know directly.

Now, on to the updated Superdelegate count:

Elected Officials:
Rep. Rick Larsen (2nd District)
Rep. Jim McDermott (7th District)

Democratic National Committee Members:
Dwight Pelz - WA Democratic Party Chair
Eileen Macoll - WA Vice Chair
Ed Cote (coed@pacifier.com)
Sharon Mast (skmast@att.net)
David McDonald (davidm@prestongates.com)

Already Endorsed Obama:
Rep. Adam Smith (WA)
Pat Noter (WA DNC Member)
Rep. Brian Baird (3rd District)
Gov. Christine Gregoire

Already Endorsed Clinton:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA)
Rep. Jay Inslee (WA)
Former Speaker Tom Foley (WA)
Sen. Patty Murray (WA)
Ron Sims (WA)

The Stranger did a great article on how to caucus this upcoming Saturday, February 9th. You can read it here.

The most important thing they remind everyone of is that, if you are not registered to vote or have forgotten if you are or not, you can register to vote at your caucus site! If you want to do that, arrive early! Also, because the folks that run the caucus might forget to bring them, bring your own registration form already filled out! You can download a registration form here.

Also, if you have moved and your registration is not up to date, download the same form and bring it with you with your previous address filled out.

The Stranger explains the basics for you:

THE BASICS
The caucuses for both parties kick off at 1:00 p.m. on Saturday, February 9. Arrive early, or, at the very least, precisely on time. Democracy doesn't care about your excuses for tardiness.

To be eligible to attend a caucus, you must be registered to vote. Not currently registered? You can register to vote at your caucus site—but if you're planning to do that, arrive early. If you're not 18 yet, but are going to be 18 by the time of the election in November, you can participate...

At the caucus, you will be made to sign a pledge related to your party affiliation. Don't worry. You can still vote for whomever you want in November...

Still confused? Call the Democratic caucus hotline, (206) 583-4345, or the Republican state party, (206) 575-2900.

I kept meaning to do a post about registering to vote at your caucus site once I found out about it last week, but 2 weeks of phone banking every night and canvasing kept me a bit busy.

Spread the word!

I blogged about it a couple days ago. Now the Seattle Times is writing about it. Superdelegates could be the deciding factor in the Democratic Party Presidential Primary. Beyond that, local Superdelegate endorsements matter.

The Seattle Times reports today that Gov Gregoire will make an endorsement before the Washington State Democratic Party Caucus on February 9th.

Seattle Times : Elite Dems are the life of the party
Gov. Christine Gregoire has been under a lot of pressure lately to pick a candidate. As a superdelegate, she met with Clinton supporter Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, daughter of the late Robert F. Kennedy, and missed several calls from former President Clinton and from Obama.

"And that's just in the past couple of days," Gregoire said Tuesday.

The governor said she is deeply torn between Obama's "message of hope" and Clinton's experience. But she said she plans to make a decision soon and announce her preference before the party's Feb. 9 precinct caucuses.

Gov. Gregoire's endorsement matters. But so does your encouragement, as the people who elected her by a less than 200 vote margin, for her to support Sen. Barack Obama.

Click this link to Email Gov. Gregoire today! Your emails will show her that Washington State supports a new generation of leadership and will reward her with enthusiastic support for her own re-election bid in November.

You can read the email I sent to her (and then cut, paste, edit and sent to the others on the Superdelegate list I provided a few days ago), after the break. Feel free to copy and adapt it for your own use.

It'll take 5 minutes of your day and it will make a difference.

Make Your Voice Heard Loud & Clear... Tell The Key Holders That A New Generation Is Ready To Lead!

Updated 2/12/08: Go to this new post for updated delegate counts and new information!

Okay, I'm for Obama, but you already knew that. Here's the deal. Like I said in the previous post, the race for the nomination is likely to be a long one. It is extremely likely that is will drag on past Super Tuesday (Feb 5th) and into Washington State on February 9th.

It's also becoming increasingly possible that, after all 50 states (and American Samoa!) have voted, we still won't have a nominee. What then? Superdelegates.

Check out this Wikipedia article to find out what exactly Superdelegates are but, the short of it is, they're left over from the days when the nominees were chosen in smoke filled back rooms during the party conventions by a bunch of haggling old men. Ain't that democratic! Well, the SDs are the last visages of that (thankfully) by-gone era. They're loyal party members, party heads and elected officials and they hold one fifth (19.6%) of all votes at the convention.

Currently, Clinton has around 200 pledged SDs, Obama has around 100, Edwards around 40 and somewhere between 400-500 SDs are not committed yet. That's where you come in. Write a quick email to these people (cut + paste always works!) and let them know who you support and why.

Here's the list of Washington State Superdelegates for the Democratic Party who have not endorsed anyone at this point. Most are doing web submitted emails these days, so click their name and you'll be taken straight to their site to submit an email. Be brief, extremely nice, and let them know why you want them to support Barack Obama.

The battle for Superdelegates has already begun by each side, but what matters most is what elected officials hear from their constituents.

So this is what happens when a party denies global warming and evolution and is increasingly seen as the extension of a religious movement...

Seattle Times : Once-mighty GOP on the Eastside takes another hit
State Republicans, who've seen their grip on the Eastside suburbs weaken over the past decade, have now been vanquished to the hills. Thursday's defection by Republican Rep. Fred Jarrett to the Democratic Party leaves only the Eastside's most rural legislative district with any GOP state lawmakers.

Holiday season stuff, finals and life in general has kept me busy the last two weeks, but I promise some bloggin' about Washington State tax reform soon!

Well, well. It's been a long time, hasn't it? For those of you that don't know (and any of you that are actually reading), I am currently living in New York City as my wife attends graduate school.

There are many benefits to this large metropolis. One being an amazing transit system which was built over 100 years ago. It's the major reason why New York is livable and Los Angeles is a crap-hole. More about Roads & Rails in the next few weeks, but let's just say if we want a livable city, and not another LA, light rail is the answer. But more on that later. And I promise to keep updating this regularly now.

The Seattle Times (you know that wonderful liberal rag which endorsed Bush in 2000, continually calls for the elimination of the estate tax for the benefit of the family which publishes the Times, and generally has an idiotic editorial board stuck in the Seattle of 1981) endorsed a "No" vote of Proposition 1 (AKA Rail & Roads) today.

Goldy at Horsesass.org has an excellent post on this subject today but he also fails to point out perhaps the single largest fallacy in the Times argument:

The Seattle Times: Reject Proposition 1 - Oct 15,2007
Seattle may deny this, but the surest way to reduce congestion on roads is to build more lanes. So says a report issued by State Auditor Brian Sonntag last week, and so says human experience. New roads help.

Good job, hack-editorial board. The problem is, that argument has proven to be false time and time again by agencies more knowledgeable than Brian Sonntag.

In Suburban Nation: The Rise of Sprawl and the Decline of the American Dream the authors point out a famous UC Berkeley study, covering thirty California counties between 1973 and 1990 and found that, for every 10 percent increase in roadway capacity, traffic increased 9 percent within four years' time. Roads don't solve anything.

But the Times doesn't have to actually read any books on this subject to get a clue on why adding roads doesn't work. A simple Google search and a click on the Traffic Congestion article on Wikipedia will easily give you the best line that even the Times editorial board could understand:

Adding road capacity has been compared to "fighting obesity by letting out your belt"

I guess to the lumbering, stuck-in-the-past Times editorial board, that sounds like a delicious idea.

That's it, folks. Rodney Tom has just announced that he's dropping out of the race against Darcy Burner for the democratic nomination to get Reichert out of Congress in the 8th CD. Tom will endorse Burner and will work to support her campaign.

Kudos to Rodney Tom on a graceful exit from the race and for putting his weight behind Darcy. Very cool.

Goldy's got the full scoop on Dean Logan's resignation. Here's Dean's Letter, and Ron Sims' Response.

It'll be interesting to see how King Counties transition to vote-by-mail will take shape now. If it ever does.

Randy Gordon has officially backed out of the race for Congress in Washington's 8th CD. This leaves East-siders with a solid chance at electing a Democratic Representative that, oh I don't know, ACTUALLY REPRESENTS them.

More later...

Once again, it's Happy Hour where you - the loyal readers, bloggers and lurkers pipe up.

Today's topic - King County & All Mail-In Balloting

The Seattle PI reports:

Possibly as early as next fall, King County would go to an all-mail voting system -- the nation's largest -- under a plan announced by County Executive Ron Sims Tuesday.

"The public has spoken: They like the convenience of all-mail balloting," said Sims, noting that more than 70 percent of the county's voters now cast absentee ballots.

The executive said he has directed elections director Dean Logan to prepare by Jan. 31 a comprehensive plan and timetable for an all-mail ballot system for King County's 1.2 million registered voters. He said it would be in place for the primary election in either 2006 or 2007.

So, what's your opinion? Yes? No? I don't care.

The bar is open...

Related Links:
Seattle PI: Sims seeks all-mail vote

Ooh ooh! Everybody loves pictures!!! Go here for the cutest party bus pictures EVER-- and stay tuned for a big fat post on all the dish from the Election Night Party Bus Extravaganza.