Deep Inside The Numbers, Hillary's "Win" Looks Shallow

Obama Puts More of the Map in Play, Hillary At Her Ceiling

The blogs were abuzz last week (pre OH / TX showdown) regarding SurveyUSA's Electoral Map. Obama wins the general election 280 against McCain's 258 while Clinton wins 276 to 262.

Of course polls this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, even if SurveyUSA has been almost as good as Obama's leaked Bloomberg spreadsheet. It's definitely great news that both candidates win against McCain, but deep within these numbers you can see that Clinton's Electoral win is on much more shallow ground than Obama's Electoral map, which is on the smaller range of his possible win margin. Clinton is likely at her ceiling with 276 - she has no where to go but down. Dems should take notice.

They both win Ohio by +10%, Obama loses Florida by -2% (Hillary by wins by +9%), Hillary wins PA by 1% and Obama loses by -5% and they're basically both tied in Michigan (Obama up by +1%). In the end, Obama puts a lot more of the map in play, and that is always a better position to begin from. Make no mistake - Obama will be playing offense and is within striking distance of PA and FL, along with tons of other states (while still winning 280). Hillary will be playing Gore 2000 / Kerry 2004 defense.

Obama Wins that Hillary Trails:
Colorado (Obama +6% / Hillary -2%)
Iowa (Obama +9% / Hillary -5%)
Nevada (Obama +2% / Hillary -8%)
New Hampshire (Obama +2% / Hillary -8%)
New Mexico (Obama +7% / Hillary tied)
North Dakota (Obama +4% / Hillary -19%)
Oregon (Obama +8 % / Hillary -5%)
Washington (Obama +14% / Hillary -2%)
Wisconsin (Obama +11% / Hillary +2% - not a loss, but way closer)
Virginia (Obama Tie / Hillary -10%)


Republican States That Obama Can Compete More Easily For:
Nebraska (Obama -3% / Hillary -23%)
North Carolina (Obama -2% / Hillary -8%)
South Carolina (Obama -3% / Hillary -6%)
South Dakota (Obama -4% / Hillary -12%)
Texas (Obama -1% / Hillary -7%)

The only states that Hillary puts into play that look outside of Obama's map are Arkansas (Hillary +11% / Obama -20%) and West Virginia (Hillary +5% / Obama -18%). Obama hasn't had a chance to campaign in WV yet, but down 20% seems something that is beyond a simple primary campaign.

So, Dems... what do you want to do? Offense or defense?

Oh, and what's up with Washington?!?! A 14 point win by Obama and a 2 point loss by Hillary?

Vetted? Tested? The known-known? The Clinton Library (and more importantly The Clinton Foundation) are more fun than saying Marc Rich or Lincoln Bedroom three times fast!

Thomas Jefferson, the founder of the Democratic Party, the principle author of the Declaration of Independence, and the third president of the United States would be, if alive, a Superdelegate. Sure, he'd be 265 years old, but that's beside the point.

And, the founder of the party of FDR and JFK, the party of Hillary and Bill Clinton and the party of John Edwards and Bill Richardson would vote for Barack Obama if things stay the way they are today. How do we know this? It's simple... it's one of his most famous quotes:

"The majority of a single vote (is) as sacred as if unanimous" - Thomas Jefferson

If Barack Obama is ahead in the popular vote, as he is today, if he is ahead in the pledged delegate count, as he is today, Hillary Clinton must decide if she wishes to go against the majority of voters in the country, the majority of delegates (by which the nomination is officially decided) and Thomas Jefferson in her quest for the nomination.

Good luck with that one Hillary. Good luck.

Sen Obama cleaned up in Washington State by a margin of greater than 2 to 1 on Saturday (The Republicans, meanwhile, well... who knows. Check out SoundPolitics if you want to get some lols at the Republicans expense). The Seattle Times reports today that 8 of the 17 Superdelegates on the Democratic side are still undecided.

It sounds like the undecided superdelegates are unlikely to make up their minds anytime soon, and (if you're a constituent of theirs) I still think sending emails to them regarding the positive reasons you are supporting Sen Obama is an effective way to advocate for his candidacy. (Note: If you are not their direct constituent, don't bother. It's more of a nuisance and is probably a net negative).

DNC Members are fre game, though. The Seattle Times reports that DNC Members like Eileen Macoll are getting phone calls from the big wigs, including President Clinton. "I'm getting a lot of attention and I'll tell you, for a little country mouse like me, it's a big deal," Macoll said.

Well, it seems to me that the "mouses" in this state have spoken, and perhaps we need to let Ms. Macoll know directly.

Now, on to the updated Superdelegate count:

Elected Officials:
Rep. Rick Larsen (2nd District)
Rep. Jim McDermott (7th District)

Democratic National Committee Members:
Dwight Pelz - WA Democratic Party Chair
Eileen Macoll - WA Vice Chair
Ed Cote (coed@pacifier.com)
Sharon Mast (skmast@att.net)
David McDonald (davidm@prestongates.com)

Already Endorsed Obama:
Rep. Adam Smith (WA)
Pat Noter (WA DNC Member)
Rep. Brian Baird (3rd District)
Gov. Christine Gregoire

Already Endorsed Clinton:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA)
Rep. Jay Inslee (WA)
Former Speaker Tom Foley (WA)
Sen. Patty Murray (WA)
Ron Sims (WA)

The Stranger did a great article on how to caucus this upcoming Saturday, February 9th. You can read it here.

The most important thing they remind everyone of is that, if you are not registered to vote or have forgotten if you are or not, you can register to vote at your caucus site! If you want to do that, arrive early! Also, because the folks that run the caucus might forget to bring them, bring your own registration form already filled out! You can download a registration form here.

Also, if you have moved and your registration is not up to date, download the same form and bring it with you with your previous address filled out.

The Stranger explains the basics for you:

THE BASICS
The caucuses for both parties kick off at 1:00 p.m. on Saturday, February 9. Arrive early, or, at the very least, precisely on time. Democracy doesn't care about your excuses for tardiness.

To be eligible to attend a caucus, you must be registered to vote. Not currently registered? You can register to vote at your caucus site—but if you're planning to do that, arrive early. If you're not 18 yet, but are going to be 18 by the time of the election in November, you can participate...

At the caucus, you will be made to sign a pledge related to your party affiliation. Don't worry. You can still vote for whomever you want in November...

Still confused? Call the Democratic caucus hotline, (206) 583-4345, or the Republican state party, (206) 575-2900.

I kept meaning to do a post about registering to vote at your caucus site once I found out about it last week, but 2 weeks of phone banking every night and canvasing kept me a bit busy.

Spread the word!

I blogged about it a couple days ago. Now the Seattle Times is writing about it. Superdelegates could be the deciding factor in the Democratic Party Presidential Primary. Beyond that, local Superdelegate endorsements matter.

The Seattle Times reports today that Gov Gregoire will make an endorsement before the Washington State Democratic Party Caucus on February 9th.

Seattle Times : Elite Dems are the life of the party
Gov. Christine Gregoire has been under a lot of pressure lately to pick a candidate. As a superdelegate, she met with Clinton supporter Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, daughter of the late Robert F. Kennedy, and missed several calls from former President Clinton and from Obama.

"And that's just in the past couple of days," Gregoire said Tuesday.

The governor said she is deeply torn between Obama's "message of hope" and Clinton's experience. But she said she plans to make a decision soon and announce her preference before the party's Feb. 9 precinct caucuses.

Gov. Gregoire's endorsement matters. But so does your encouragement, as the people who elected her by a less than 200 vote margin, for her to support Sen. Barack Obama.

Click this link to Email Gov. Gregoire today! Your emails will show her that Washington State supports a new generation of leadership and will reward her with enthusiastic support for her own re-election bid in November.

You can read the email I sent to her (and then cut, paste, edit and sent to the others on the Superdelegate list I provided a few days ago), after the break. Feel free to copy and adapt it for your own use.

It'll take 5 minutes of your day and it will make a difference.

Make Your Voice Heard Loud & Clear... Tell The Key Holders That A New Generation Is Ready To Lead!

Updated 2/12/08: Go to this new post for updated delegate counts and new information!

Okay, I'm for Obama, but you already knew that. Here's the deal. Like I said in the previous post, the race for the nomination is likely to be a long one. It is extremely likely that is will drag on past Super Tuesday (Feb 5th) and into Washington State on February 9th.

It's also becoming increasingly possible that, after all 50 states (and American Samoa!) have voted, we still won't have a nominee. What then? Superdelegates.

Check out this Wikipedia article to find out what exactly Superdelegates are but, the short of it is, they're left over from the days when the nominees were chosen in smoke filled back rooms during the party conventions by a bunch of haggling old men. Ain't that democratic! Well, the SDs are the last visages of that (thankfully) by-gone era. They're loyal party members, party heads and elected officials and they hold one fifth (19.6%) of all votes at the convention.

Currently, Clinton has around 200 pledged SDs, Obama has around 100, Edwards around 40 and somewhere between 400-500 SDs are not committed yet. That's where you come in. Write a quick email to these people (cut + paste always works!) and let them know who you support and why.

Here's the list of Washington State Superdelegates for the Democratic Party who have not endorsed anyone at this point. Most are doing web submitted emails these days, so click their name and you'll be taken straight to their site to submit an email. Be brief, extremely nice, and let them know why you want them to support Barack Obama.

The battle for Superdelegates has already begun by each side, but what matters most is what elected officials hear from their constituents.

With Obama spanking Billary and the politics of racial division in concert with the endorsement of Sen. Kennedy and a stirring endorsement and essay in the New York Times by Caroline Kennedy making headlines today, it looks as if Obama has some wind against his back pushing him towards February 5th and Super Tuesday.

But the establishment is just as likely to push back and the formerly decisive wave of delegates awarded on Super Tuesday, according to the AP amongst others, is now (gaffs and major news-cycle changes aside) unlikely to provide a knock-out punch to either campaign.

That means Washington State's February 9th Caucus will likely turn out to be crucial to either campaign. (If you haven't registered to vote, or if your registration needs updating, you can do it in person until February 4th. Click here, select your county, and you can see where to register!)

You can find your caucus site using the Washington State Democrats Caucus Finder, which is someone useful, but not entirely correct. I'll keep looking for a better site.

Get out there and make your voice heard. It's generational change we're talking about and, for once, Washington State can have a serious impact on the primary race.

Although everyone reading this likely knows already, the Democratic Party will not be using the results of the election which will take place to award any delgates, so don't think that by voting you're making a difference. You are making your voice heard for the future of Superdelegates (more about that in a bit) but you really need to Caucus to make your voice heard in any meaningful fashion!)

Well, it's been a crazy month. Flying back-and-forth to Seattle for holidays, running up to New Hampshire to volunteer for the Obama campaign for a while, and hitting the ground here in NYC to hopefully make Hillary spend some of her cash defending her home turf. Oh, and there might be a trip to South Carolina tomorrow as, apparently, the Obama people now know I'm somebody who is willing to travel.

I've taken some great pictures and met some great people, and sometime I'll blog about it.

All I can say is, if you feel strongly about it, we need your support. So, go to barackobama.com and do what you can.

Grad school and student loans means only $50 from my family in all of 2007, so I volunteered my time instead. It's not glamorous, but it's needed and at least I can always say I did my part. I got to see Sen. Obama speak after the NH primary and I already know it is one of the highlights of my life and will be forever.

I'm in the bloggin' mode now (and luckily this break wasn't as long as the previous) so let's get rollin'!

I agree with Grover Norquist. It pains me to say it and type it. I never thought those words would cross my mind. Yes, I agree with the ultra-right wing creator of Americans for Tax Reform.

I was watching MSNBC a few mornings ago (note: admitting you've watched MSNBC is almost more embarrassing than admitting you agree with Norquist) and Grover came on to talk about a new constitutional amendment he's pushing which I completely support. (also note: I've never seen a picture of Grover before and he looks quite different than I thought he would)

TimesOnline: Fear of a dynasty denies Hillary Clinton votes (Nov 11, 2007)
Norquist has commissioned lawyers to draw up a constitutional amendment that would ban family members from succeeding one another to elected and appointed office. If passed, it would not apply to the Clinton's as a Bush was elected in between them. But Norquist believes that it will alert voters to the perils of dynasty.

Here's the kicker, there's a quote from Peggy Noonan, former Reagan speech writer and Wall Street Journal hack, that I also agree with in that article. What is the world coming too?

Dynasticism brings with it a sense of deterioration. It is dispiriting.

Noonan! Noonan!

That's it, folks. Rodney Tom has just announced that he's dropping out of the race against Darcy Burner for the democratic nomination to get Reichert out of Congress in the 8th CD. Tom will endorse Burner and will work to support her campaign.

Kudos to Rodney Tom on a graceful exit from the race and for putting his weight behind Darcy. Very cool.

Sorry everyone, I'll learn HTML at some point...

******

You are Invited to Join

President William J. Clinton

For a luncheon and benefit for

Senator Hillary Clinton

Saturday, June 23rd, 2007
1:00 p.m. VIP Reception
1:15 p.m. Lunch

The Westin Seattle
1900 Fifth Avenue
Seattle, WA 98101

Individual Tickets
Team Member $250 - $500 - $1,000
Base Builder $2,300 - Champion $4,600

To become an event co-chair or to purchase a ticket, please contact
Colby Underwood at cunderwood@hillaryclinton.com
or 206-364-2344 or visit the website at https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com/events/seattle0623.html

Contributions to Hillary Clinton for President Exploratory Committee are not tax deductible for
federal income tax purposes.

Paid for by Hillary Clinton for President Exploratory Committee

By the way, you're not invited. When the President is in town for two hours and you find yourself without a few million dollars in your pocket or an 'R' next to your name on the ballot, your invitation gets lost in the mail.

President Bush touched down in Seattle today:

Bush will attend a private reception this morning in Medina to raise money for the re-election campaign of Republican Rep. David Reichert, who represents the suburban 8th District.

The midmorning reception, the president's only stop in this state, will be at the 8,000-square-foot, $10.3 million mansion of Peter Neupert, a Microsoft Corp. corporate vice president and former chief executive of drugstore.com Inc. Proceeds from the $1,000-a-head reception will go to Reichert, who is facing an aggressive challenge from Democrat Darcy Burner, a political newcomer and former Microsoft manager.

I know it's odd, but Bush flying in to help out Reichert feels a bit like his Baghdad Green Zone cameo from a few days back. Slip into hostile territory unannounced, surrounded by friendlies, then get the hell out before anyone noticed what the hell happened.

I know what you're thinking- NO, that doesn't make Darcy Burner a terrorist, necessarily. She's just one more part of that great liberal insurgency conspiracy.

Take these generic polls with a huge grain of salt, but it certainly runs counter to the "incompetent dems cant find ass from hole in ground" storyline.

March 15, 2006
Democratic Congressional Lead Among Registered Voters Largest Since '82 Midterm--Lead by 55% to 39% on generic ballot
The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds the Democratic Party leading the Republican Party 55% to 39% among registered voters in the generic congressional ballot. Gallup asks this question to get a sense of how people will vote in this year's elections for the U.S. House of Representatives.

This is the largest lead Democrats have held over Republicans in the 2006 campaign thus far, and the largest lead Democrats have enjoyed among registered voters in a midterm election since 1982. In the 1992 presidential campaign, Democrats led Republicans by 20 percentage points following the Democratic national convention that year. Once likely voter turnout models are applied -- something usually done later in the campaign -- the Democrats' advantage on the generic ballot is reduced given higher turnout rates among Republicans than Democrats. Still, a lead of this size would suggest a solid Democratic advantage among likely voters and the likelihood of Democratic seat gains.

In a shocking and unprecedented move, the state's lone popular Republican (Dino "I hate kids" Rossi) endorsed the state's least known Republican (Mike "Even my kids can't remember my name" Mcgavick).

In a notable and obviously true comment, if by "true" you mean "absurd and cracked out", Rossi made the following comparison:

"I think he will be a terrific United States senator. Over time, he will have the stature of a Magnuson or a Jackson. He has the ability and the leadership."

When asked to comment, Magnuson had a two part reply:

First of all, that's goddamn ridiculous. He use to work for Slade "Indian Killer" Gordon. He'll be about as popular as used toilet paper. Second of all, why am I stuck in this box?

Senate hopeful McGavick picks up Rossi backing

So I was watching the news this morning, and it appears that the political season is upon us. Early sniping has begun in the great northwest, and the well lubed repuglican part has fired the first salvo. The ad starts off innocuous enough: You're born, you do the right thing, you pay your taxes, and when you die, you have to pay taxes again! Up to 55% of your estate! Oh my goodness, I have to pay a death tax? Whatever should I do? Well, the Club for Growth (http://www.clubforgrowth.org/) tells us we should call Sen. Cantwell and tell her to strike it down! Hmmm, I wonder why they didn't ask us to call Patty Murray? Maybe they just forgot.

In regards to the "death Tax", I had a nice sit down conversation with my father one night about it, because just as it happens he's an attorney who does estate planning. He's been doing it going on 30 years now, so I figure that he would have some insight on the whole matter. Just as it turns out, he does, and you know what? The only people affected by the death tax are the children of the ultra wealthy who did not hire a good estate planner. No family farms have been closed. No one was ever put into the poor house because of the "death tax". If you work your whole life, and you pay taxes, and you die and your estate is less than 3 million, guess what? You don't pay it. Two percent of the population is affected by this, so why is the club for growth so up in arms about it, and what's the importance of calling Sen. Cantwell about it?

Safeco Insurance CEO Mike McGavick resigned today, leaving behind a $7.3 million dollar salary, and putting his eye on the big prize: the U.S. Senate.

McGavick will be taking on Seattle's own Maria Cantwell who, reportedly, will face the full weight of the Republican party. Cantwell has been marked as one of the top targets for the GOP to topple. Everyone expects that this will be a dirty, dirty race, as any election that Hot Karl gets involved in always gets dirty (that is, unless Rove is in Jail at that point).

But, we all may be wrong. You see, McGavick has already said, in an address to the Greater Seattle Chamber annual meeting in September of 2002, that he hates dirty smear ads.

We clearly need to raise the level of civil discourse in our community. If I see one more of those negative 30-second ads, I'm going to throw up... don't we look to our public officials to have that highest level of public debate?

Great! I'll hold you to that comment, Mike.

Of course, since millions of dollars are probably going to flood into this race, McGavick will probably benefit from shady GOP financing- who knows what companies will be giving money to McGavick with the hope that he'll vote their way if he wins. But wait... in the same speech Mike states that he wants full disclosure!

Ever since Watergate, we've been trying to tell people how they can give money to the political process - rule after rule after rule after rule! And the special interests keep finding ways around the rules. It's not surprising ... This is a perversion of our political process. I would offer candidates a choice: You may receive - so long as you immediately disclose them - any amount of money from anybody you want because I think the public is smart enough to figure out if you're bought! But here's the hitch: If you don't play the current game of limited contributions from special interests - If you don't do that, every ad, every publication, everything you do for your campaign has to be in your own voice featuring you saying it. You can't hide behind those dirty little ads because those dirty little ads enable good people to do indecent things.

I tell 'ya, this address to the Chamber of Commerce is a gift that keeps on giving.

More great lines after the jump!

If you're in Seattle, turn on 94.9 KUOW right now. Tavis Smiley has guests on talking about Washington's gubenatorial election, and felon voting rights.

Go to www.kuow.org to hear it online-- I'll bet they'll have it archived for you if you got here too late.

Every once in a while its nice to see the folks who would rather throw the whole sytem into doubt than admit they lost, have to eat their crap filled arguments. Every once in a while the light of reason gets shined on facile and destructive argument-for-the-sake-of-winning, as exemplified by those who think their ideas are so unique and brilliant as to merit a rending of the cloth that knits our little society together. From Sound Politics:

Nothing to do but work harder
[...]
As voters, we have all the power we need to make these changes, regardless of the decisions of any court, executive or legislature. Our remedy is to be more organized and to work for candidates who believe as we do. This is one election. There will be hundreds more in our lifetimes and we must contest them all. Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.

Fuck you soundpolitics. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake. Go home.

From the Seattle Times:

Monday, June 6, 2005 9:52 AM

Judge rules in favor of Democrats

In the historic governor's election lawsuit, Judge John Bridges has upheld Gov. Christine Gregoire's victory over Republican Dino Rossi. Republicans are expected to appeal to the Supreme Court.